Innovative Forecast-informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) at Lake Mendocino Improve Water Management in California’s Russian River Basin

Abstract Submission: Unique opportunities exist at Lake Mendocino for improved water management with forecast informed reservoir operations (FIRO) because atmospheric rivers (ARs) are a major source of reservoir inflows and there have been reductions of inter-basin diversions via the Potter Valley Project that have historically augmented spring refills. In recent years, gaging networks, data acquisition, hydrologic and hydraulics analysis, weather modeling, and computational power have dramatically improved in the basin and correspondingly so has forecast skill. Accordingly, reservoir managers are leveraging this increase in forecast skill to inform their operational decision-making within the regulatory constraints of water storage permits and established storage rules and “curves.”

To leverage improved forecasts for better decision support, operational rules at Lake Mendocino have been reconfigured to use reservoir inflow forecasts provided by the California Nevada River Forecast Center. These rules are currently implemented and being tested through a Major Deviation and are being incorporated into the imminently forthcoming updated Lake Mendocino Water Control Manual (WCM) currently in development by USACE San Francisco District.

This presentation describes modernized reservoir operations at Lake Mendocino, outlines the engineering analyses undertaken in their development, provides examples of the water management benefits that may be achieved, and highlights improved water management realized at Lake Mendocino in recent years because of FIRO strategies.

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