Assistant Research Professor Florida State University, Florida, United States
Abstract Submission: Balanced nutrient dynamics is essential for estuarine systems that provide vital resources (i.e., fisheries). However, hydro-meteorological changes such as changes in freshwater inflow and upstream nutrient inputs, sea level fluctuations, wind-driven mixing, and shifting salinity regimes combinedly alter nutrient dynamics through mechanisms like dilution, dispersion, and enhanced sediment resuspension. Despite extensive studies, there is a research gap in understanding of these compound influences on nutrient patterns and pulses. Existing research often focuses on isolated factors, potentially missing nuanced interactions of these factors. To address this gap, this study proposes a series of Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) to examine the effects of various factors on the concentration of nutrients, namely phosphate, nitrate + nitrite, and ammonium, in Apalachicola Bay in a regulated basin in Southeast US. The objective is to evaluate the impacts of freshwater inflow, salinity, cumulative riverine nutrient flux, sea level and wind speed on seasonally-varied nutrients. We leverage a long-term water quality dataset and propose six distinct GAMs to evaluate such impacts: a) Temporal Model, b) Flow Model, c) Flow + Riverine-Nutrient Load Model, d) Flow + Riverine-Nutrient Load + Salinity Model, and e) Flow + Riverine-Nutrient Load + Salinity + Sea Level + Wind Model. For broad understanding on the nutrient pulses under these factors, we apply these proposed models on the different statistics of nutrients (e.g., mean, min, max, and quartiles). Our study aims to link changes in nutrients with hydrometeorological phenomena such as droughts and storms, providing insights for effective water quality management.
.jpg "Sumon Hossain Rabby (he/him/his) photo")
