Scenario Analysis for Future Water Demand in Austria: Addressing Climate Change, Urbanization, and Resource Availability

Abstract Submission: Advancing climate change, demographic development, urbanization and tourism are creating new challenges for water utilities. Agriculture is also affected by longer dry periods, increasing the need for irrigation. At the same time, Europe is experiencing a decline in available drinking water resources, putting additional pressure on water utilities. To address these challenges, this study carries out a scenario analysis based on the above factors for a case study in Austria, using a modeling approach for water demand forecast that has already been used in previous studies (Stelzl and Fuchs-Hanusch, 2024). Based on the above-mentioned factors of change, development scenarios were derived for several supply zones. These scenarios cover different developments, ranging from a strong to a moderate change. For each scenario, the possible change in water demand was then determined for two different time periods (2050, 2075). The result is a possible range of future water demands per scenario, which also reflect the uncertainties of the individual factors.
Finally, these scenarios were compared with the possible development of available resources and possible shortages were identified. Population growth, different climate change scenarios and, in some regions, summer tourism were found to be among the most important influencing factors.
By considering a range of possible outcomes, this analysis provides a solid basis for long-term water supply planning and ensures resilience in the face of changing climatic and socio-economic conditions.

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