Development of a Risk Assessment Curve for a Dam Section with Numerical Modeling

Abstract Submission: As climate change accelerates the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events, flood risk management has become increasingly critical, especially in flood-prone regions. This study presents a comprehensive approach to assessing the structural integrity of a dam section subjected to varying flood conditions. By employing Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves and advanced numerical modeling through Plaxis, factors of safety under different hydrological scenarios are determined. The IDF curves allow for the modeling of extreme rainfall events, providing realistic flood loading conditions that are applied to the dam section for analysis. The computed safety factors serve as inputs for the development of a fragility curve, which quantifies the probability of dam failure under different stress conditions. The risk assessment curve is a critical tool for evaluating the resilience of flood defense structures, enabling better risk assessment and management strategies. This study provides a framework for balancing infrastructure investments with risk reduction efforts, offering key insights to mitigate flood-related damages in a rapidly changing climate. This study advances the understanding of flood-induced risks and provides practical solutions for enhancing dam safety. The findings are especially relevant for regions vulnerable to climate-driven flood hazards, offering a data-driven approach to improving flood resilience and minimizing potential socio-economic impacts.

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