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Oral

2025 Symposium on Hydro-climate and Climate Change (Watershed)

A Climate-Informed Framework for Probabilistic Flood and Societal Risk Assessment: Pilot Analysis for the Midwestern United States

Monday, May 19, 2025
10:00 AM – 10:15 AM Alaska Daylight Time (AKDT)
Room: Room 1
Abstract Submission: Flood risks are escalating due to the influence of climate change, demanding new approaches to risk assessment that account for future climate variability and change. We propose a probabilistic framework for quantifying flood and societal risk, integrating high-resolution ensemble flood inundation projections, population exposure, and infrastructure vulnerability. The ensemble flood inundation maps are generated using TRITON (Two-dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs), an open-source, GPU-accelerated 2D hydrodynamic model. TRITON is driven by downscaled and bias-corrected runoff and streamflow projections, derived from selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models, to simulate an ensemble of 480 annual maximum flood events. These ensemble simulations enable the creation of probabilistic flood maps and grid-level inundation frequency estimates under both historic (1980–2019) and future (2020–2059) climate conditions. The historical inundation maps are first used to establish spatial relationships between social impacts—such as population, critical infrastructure, and social vulnerability—and flood hazards. We estimate the impacts of historical flooding by assessing the US Flood Damage and FEMA flood insurance claims datasets and evaluate vulnerability of different demographics using Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center’s (SEDAC) US Social Vulnerability Index. These climate-informed flood maps are then assessed against future population projections to evaluate future flood risks. Our analysis provides insights into displaced populations, infrastructure damages, and economic losses, with a focus on disadvantaged communities. This framework offers stakeholders a comprehensive tool for flood resilience and mitigation strategies and inform decision-making in the context of a changing climate.

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